The transition from ICE to EVs and hybrids – summary

The transition to EVs will be much faster than generally anticipated if the announcements of leading car manufacturers and manufacturing countries is taken for granted. The table below lists these announcements and, based on them, once could assume that by 2030 it will become increasingly difficult to buy new ICE vehicles globally.

Additionally it’s likely that these countries and manufacturers will increase their ambition over time as the transition speeds up. If so then the the transition will be faster than suggested below.

The top 22 or so manufacturers representing 95% of the world’s car production have all announced that a significant proportion of their manufacturing will be EVs and/or hybrids by 2025. Of these several have announced targets of between 30% and 100% including Toyota, VW, Volvo, Geely, Ford, Nissan, GM, Fiat/Chrysler, Honda, Jaguar, PSA (Peugeot group), Kia, Mitsubishi, SAIC, Renault, Hyundai and others.

In recent months virtually all these manufacturers have either announced targets or have accelerated their existing targets

In addition some 33 countries and multiple other jurisdictions (cities, provinces and states) have announced bans for various types for ICE vehicles. These include most of the major vehicle manufacturing countries worldwide including Germany, China, the US, Japan, South Korea, UK, India, Canada and Mexico.

Given the urgency and the acceleration of actions on climate it’s likely that both the number and speed of ICE phase outs will accelerate as, for example, in the UK. As this occurs it will push more and more manufacturers to either announce or accelerate their own plans for production and sale of EVs.

TABLE: List of countries and companies announcing transition to EVs

Countries or other jurisdictionDateType of BanProportion of World Vehicle Manu- factureNumber of carsCompanyDateGoalProportion of World Vehicle Manufacture Total 98.2 million (2019)
Copenhagen2021No Diesel vehicles on streetsGeely (China)2020Committed in 2015 that 90% of the brand’s sales would come from new energy vehicles by 20201.98%
Rome2024No diesels in city centreFord (US)2022Forty EV and hybrid models; all electric in Europe by 20256.49%
Norway2025ICE vehiclesNissan (Japan)20228 New EVs. 42% of EU sales EVs/hybrids by 20225.8% approx
Belgium2026New Fleet carsFiat/Chrysler (US/Italy)2022At least 12 hybrid and all-electric powertrain options and 30 electrified nameplates, 60% of sales in Europe. ME and Africa to be EV/hybrid by 2022<1.98%
Austria2027Newly registered taxis, car shares and hire carsHonda (Japan)2022Every model part electric5.32% approx
Iceland2030New ICE vehiclesToyota (Japan)202250% all or part electric10% (approx)
Netherlands2030New ICE vehiclesJaguar2024Fully EV
Denmark2030New ICE vehiclesPeugeot/Citroen (PSA Group)202580% EV3.70% approx
India2030New ICE vehicles4.91%57 million
Ireland2030New ICE vehiclesVolvo (China)2025Fully EV<1.98%
Israel2030New imported ICE vehiclesKia (S. Korea)202540% EV<1.98%
Slovenia2030New ICE vehiclesMitsubishi (Japan)202550% EV/hybrid<1.98%
Sweden2030New ICE carsSAIC (China)2025New platform NEV specifically for EVs with all models going electric by 2025. 5.7% of sales were EVs in 2020.2.91% approx
Germany2030No registration of any ICE vehicles5.07%46 millionSubaru (Japan)203040% EV/hybrid<1.98%
Amsterdam2030No ICE vehicles on streetsBMW (Germany)203050% EV<1.98%
UK2030New ICE vehicles31 millionFord (US)203017 hybrids and EVs – both family haulers and commercial vehicles – it plans to bring to the European market by 20246.4% approx
Hainan (China)2030New ICE cars buses, coaches, Lt commercialChina (281 million)Volkswagen (Germany)203060% EV/hybrid. 1 million EVS by 2023; 70% EVs in Europe by 2030 and 50% in China and US by 2030. 30% of all sales EV by 203010% approx
Scotland (UK)2032New ICE vehiclesHyundai (Korea)2025Dedicated EV platform to be developed between 2021-23. 10% of all sales to be electric vehicles by 20257.20%
Denmark2035New ICE & Hybrid vehiclesRenault (France)2030Seven EVs by 2025; 30% of production fully electric by then4.22% approx
Paris (France)2035No diesel cars or vans on streetsSuzuki (Japan)2030Electric vehicle platform3.36% approx
Madrid (Spain)2035No diesel cars or vans on streetsGM (US)2035Fully EV by 20356.9% approx
Athens (Greece)2035No diesel cars or vans on streetsDaimler (Germany)2030Ten EVs by 2022 and 50 including Mercedes badge. New EQ design specifically for EVs. 50% EVs by 20302.58%
Mexico City (Mexico)2035No diesel cars or vans on streetsBMW (Germany)2030Dedicated EV platform and 50% of all sales electric by 20302.58%
Japan2035New ICE vehicles10.46%81 million
South Korea2035New ICE vehicles4.30%23 million
Quebec (Canada)2035New ICE vehiclesCanada 25 million
California (USA)2035New passenger cars and light-duty trucksUSA (273 million)
Columbia2035Public transport vehicles
Cape Verde2035New ICE vehicles
CHINA2040New ICE vehicles281 million
CANADA2040No national targets2.80%
British Columbia (Canada)2040New ICE cars
Spain2040New ICE vehicles23 million
Egypt2040New ICE vehicles
France2040New ICE vehicles32 million
Portugal2040New ICE vehicles
Sri Lanka2040No ICE vehicles permited on roads
Taiwan2040Ban all sales of nonelectric motorcycles and four-wheel vehicles by 2035 and 2040, respectively
Hong Kong2040New ICE vehicles
Singapore2040All ICE vehicles
Slovenia2040New ICE vehicles
Costa Rica2050New ICE vehicles
MexicoNo dateNo target announced4.33%37 million

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