The transition to EVs will be much faster than generally anticipated if the announcements of leading car manufacturers and manufacturing countries is taken for granted. The table below lists these announcements and, based on them, once could assume that by 2030 it will become increasingly difficult to buy new ICE vehicles globally.
Additionally it’s likely that these countries and manufacturers will increase their ambition over time as the transition speeds up. If so then the the transition will be faster than suggested below.
The top 22 or so manufacturers representing 95% of the world’s car production have all announced that a significant proportion of their manufacturing will be EVs and/or hybrids by 2025. Of these several have announced targets of between 30% and 100% including Toyota, VW, Volvo, Geely, Ford, Nissan, GM, Fiat/Chrysler, Honda, Jaguar, PSA (Peugeot group), Kia, Mitsubishi, SAIC, Renault, Hyundai and others.
In recent months virtually all these manufacturers have either announced targets or have accelerated their existing targets
In addition some 33 countries and multiple other jurisdictions (cities, provinces and states) have announced bans for various types for ICE vehicles. These include most of the major vehicle manufacturing countries worldwide including Germany, China, the US, Japan, South Korea, UK, India, Canada and Mexico.
Given the urgency and the acceleration of actions on climate it’s likely that both the number and speed of ICE phase outs will accelerate as, for example, in the UK. As this occurs it will push more and more manufacturers to either announce or accelerate their own plans for production and sale of EVs.
TABLE: List of countries and companies announcing transition to EVs
| Countries or other jurisdiction | Date | Type of Ban | Proportion of World Vehicle Manu- facture | Number of cars | Company | Date | Goal | Proportion of World Vehicle Manufacture Total 98.2 million (2019) |
| Copenhagen | 2021 | No Diesel vehicles on streets | Geely (China) | 2020 | Committed in 2015 that 90% of the brand’s sales would come from new energy vehicles by 2020 | 1.98% | ||
| Rome | 2024 | No diesels in city centre | Ford (US) | 2022 | Forty EV and hybrid models; all electric in Europe by 2025 | 6.49% | ||
| Norway | 2025 | ICE vehicles | Nissan (Japan) | 2022 | 8 New EVs. 42% of EU sales EVs/hybrids by 2022 | 5.8% approx | ||
| Belgium | 2026 | New Fleet cars | Fiat/Chrysler (US/Italy) | 2022 | At least 12 hybrid and all-electric powertrain options and 30 electrified nameplates, 60% of sales in Europe. ME and Africa to be EV/hybrid by 2022 | <1.98% | ||
| Austria | 2027 | Newly registered taxis, car shares and hire cars | Honda (Japan) | 2022 | Every model part electric | 5.32% approx | ||
| Iceland | 2030 | New ICE vehicles | Toyota (Japan) | 2022 | 50% all or part electric | 10% (approx) | ||
| Netherlands | 2030 | New ICE vehicles | Jaguar | 2024 | Fully EV | |||
| Denmark | 2030 | New ICE vehicles | Peugeot/Citroen (PSA Group) | 2025 | 80% EV | 3.70% approx | ||
| India | 2030 | New ICE vehicles | 4.91% | 57 million | ||||
| Ireland | 2030 | New ICE vehicles | Volvo (China) | 2025 | Fully EV | <1.98% | ||
| Israel | 2030 | New imported ICE vehicles | Kia (S. Korea) | 2025 | 40% EV | <1.98% | ||
| Slovenia | 2030 | New ICE vehicles | Mitsubishi (Japan) | 2025 | 50% EV/hybrid | <1.98% | ||
| Sweden | 2030 | New ICE cars | SAIC (China) | 2025 | New platform NEV specifically for EVs with all models going electric by 2025. 5.7% of sales were EVs in 2020. | 2.91% approx | ||
| Germany | 2030 | No registration of any ICE vehicles | 5.07% | 46 million | Subaru (Japan) | 2030 | 40% EV/hybrid | <1.98% |
| Amsterdam | 2030 | No ICE vehicles on streets | BMW (Germany) | 2030 | 50% EV | <1.98% | ||
| UK | 2030 | New ICE vehicles | 31 million | Ford (US) | 2030 | 17 hybrids and EVs – both family haulers and commercial vehicles – it plans to bring to the European market by 2024 | 6.4% approx | |
| Hainan (China) | 2030 | New ICE cars buses, coaches, Lt commercial | China (281 million) | Volkswagen (Germany) | 2030 | 60% EV/hybrid. 1 million EVS by 2023; 70% EVs in Europe by 2030 and 50% in China and US by 2030. 30% of all sales EV by 2030 | 10% approx | |
| Scotland (UK) | 2032 | New ICE vehicles | Hyundai (Korea) | 2025 | Dedicated EV platform to be developed between 2021-23. 10% of all sales to be electric vehicles by 2025 | 7.20% | ||
| Denmark | 2035 | New ICE & Hybrid vehicles | Renault (France) | 2030 | Seven EVs by 2025; 30% of production fully electric by then | 4.22% approx | ||
| Paris (France) | 2035 | No diesel cars or vans on streets | Suzuki (Japan) | 2030 | Electric vehicle platform | 3.36% approx | ||
| Madrid (Spain) | 2035 | No diesel cars or vans on streets | GM (US) | 2035 | Fully EV by 2035 | 6.9% approx | ||
| Athens (Greece) | 2035 | No diesel cars or vans on streets | Daimler (Germany) | 2030 | Ten EVs by 2022 and 50 including Mercedes badge. New EQ design specifically for EVs. 50% EVs by 2030 | 2.58% | ||
| Mexico City (Mexico) | 2035 | No diesel cars or vans on streets | BMW (Germany) | 2030 | Dedicated EV platform and 50% of all sales electric by 2030 | 2.58% | ||
| Japan | 2035 | New ICE vehicles | 10.46% | 81 million | ||||
| South Korea | 2035 | New ICE vehicles | 4.30% | 23 million | ||||
| Quebec (Canada) | 2035 | New ICE vehicles | Canada 25 million | |||||
| California (USA) | 2035 | New passenger cars and light-duty trucks | USA (273 million) | |||||
| Columbia | 2035 | Public transport vehicles | ||||||
| Cape Verde | 2035 | New ICE vehicles | ||||||
| CHINA | 2040 | New ICE vehicles | 281 million | |||||
| CANADA | 2040 | No national targets | 2.80% | |||||
| British Columbia (Canada) | 2040 | New ICE cars | ||||||
| Spain | 2040 | New ICE vehicles | 23 million | |||||
| Egypt | 2040 | New ICE vehicles | ||||||
| France | 2040 | New ICE vehicles | 32 million | |||||
| Portugal | 2040 | New ICE vehicles | ||||||
| Sri Lanka | 2040 | No ICE vehicles permited on roads | ||||||
| Taiwan | 2040 | Ban all sales of nonelectric motorcycles and four-wheel vehicles by 2035 and 2040, respectively | ||||||
| Hong Kong | 2040 | New ICE vehicles | ||||||
| Singapore | 2040 | All ICE vehicles | ||||||
| Slovenia | 2040 | New ICE vehicles | ||||||
| Costa Rica | 2050 | New ICE vehicles | ||||||
| Mexico | No date | No target announced | 4.33% | 37 million |
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